Bitcoin On-Chain
NUPL: Net Unrealized Profit and Loss Explained
Last updated 2026-07-23
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) measures the share of Bitcoin's market capitalization that consists of unrealized profit. It is calculated as market cap minus realized cap, divided by market cap. Readings above zero mean the average holder is in profit; the metric's zones map the market's aggregate psychology from capitulation to euphoria.
Why it matters to investors
Unrealized profit is potential sell pressure and unrealized loss is potential capitulation — so knowing how much of the network sits in profit describes the market's behavioral state, not just its price.
NUPL's colored zones (capitulation below 0, hope, optimism, belief, euphoria above roughly 0.75) have historically framed Bitcoin's cycle: euphoria zones aligned with major tops, negative readings with bear-market bottoms.
How to read it
- NUPL below 0 — the network in aggregate loss — has historically marked capitulation phases and cycle bottoms.
- Readings above ~0.75 (euphoria) meant most of the market cap was unrealized profit — conditions that preceded past cycle tops.
- Watch the direction of travel between zones: transitions carry more information than any single reading, and each cycle's extremes have moderated over time.
Data sources: CoinMetrics · Bitcoin blockchain (on-chain data)
Finlooker members track this on the live profit/loss on-chain charts, updated daily from the named sources.
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Common questions
How is NUPL different from MVRV?
They are algebraically related — NUPL equals 1 minus (1/MVRV) — but express the idea differently: MVRV is a ratio of market value to cost basis, while NUPL states what fraction of the market cap is unrealized profit, which maps naturally onto psychological zones.
What does a negative NUPL mean?
That Bitcoin's market cap is below its realized cap — the average holder is underwater. Historically these capitulation phases occurred late in bear markets and overlapped with long-term accumulation zones, though they can persist for months.